Many Selections

[andy]

Pre selection for WOC - see you in Moray/Highland!

World Cups Round 2 - WCup (+ more proof of form to selectors)

JWOC - less controversial this year? Tough for Olly Williams on looking at results but someone had to lose out

EYOC

[Bart]

Fiona Bunn going to JWOC as a W16 is certainly an interesting decision considering 16's aren't old enough for EYOC supposedly. She certainly deserves it after her results though!

[Homer]

Fiona Bunn going to JWOC as a W16 is certainly an interesting decision considering 16's aren't old enough for EYOC supposedly. She certainly deserves it after her results though!

She gave the selectors no choice. Well done Fiona and good luck. Potentially another 4 goes at JWOC should be great for her development.

Bart, what are you doing on the internet at 1am?!!!
Haven't you got exams to revise for?

[graeme]

Maybe the 16s can't go because there's a road crossing at EYOC?

Anyway, congratulations and good luck to all those selected. Bit of a shame they didn't pick Interlopers as the WOC relay team after our 5th successive JK I think the early WOC selections make a lot of sense, and there are still plenty of spots to fight for, so I'm looking forward to seeing who else makes the cut for WOC.

[buzz]

[JWOC Less controversial this year?

I suspect some will be disappointed not to be selected for all four disciplines. A pioneering move by GB - the schedule and format accommodates running all 5 races - something that all the other top nations take advantage of.

It will be interesting to see if this move improves results this year. We certainly have less chances, but perhaps the focus and recovery opportunities will benefit performances. There doesn't doesn't appear to be any evidence to suggest it will.

It will be less easy to see the longer term impact for WOC of encouraging specialisation and focus at an earlier age. Perhaps that's the aim - would be nice to know what the thinking is.

If the athletes and their coaches are behind the move then its certainly worth a try.

One thing's for sure - value for money has gone down with a massive hike in contributions for less races.

[graeme]

There doesn't doesn't appear to be any evidence to suggest it will.

What would constitute evidence?

I had look to see if people running more than one race underperformed compared with others at WOC. They don't, but its confounded by the fact that people selected for more than one race are generally better. Similarly for individuals at different WOCs, but again maybe they're fitter when selected for multiple races. What is clear is that the variation in performance due to random(?) errors is much bigger than any gain you get in athletics from single-race focus.

Broadly, it seems that for an individual the best chance of one good result is multiple starts , but that this will drag down the average performance.

To summarise the dilemma, would you rather have two results, coming randomly somewhere between 6th and 25th, in each, or one random result between 4th and 23rd?

[Big Jon]

At top level (ie WOC) specialisation is the way to increase the chance of a medal - I have believed this since 2003 in Rapperswill.

[buzz]

What would constitute evidence?

Thought using the word 'Evidence' might tempt you!

I had a quick look too, for example at WOC last year of the top 5 in the men's Long and Middle all except Kratov ran both races, and in JWOC men's Long all of the top 10 ran all 5 races (even those who missed out on the A final in the Middle ran the B final).

All that suggests is that other nations seem to think its OK to run multiple races and certainly the Scandinavians have plenty in reserve if they thought it an advantage to focus on fewer races.

Broadly, it seems that for an individual the best chance of one good result is multiple starts , but that this will drag down the average performance.

I don't think its quite a simple as a scatter-gun approach reaping success. Orienteering performance is very dependent on mental aspects.Focusing too much on one race could potentially have a negative impact on performance, or alternatively failure in one race could inspire success in another. There is certainly anecdotal evidence in those area, for example http://www.jwoc2013.cz/live?day=7&id=133 and many GB athletes who've had reported surprising success, or failed expectations over the years. The same can be true in other sports - look at Coe and Ovett in Moscow.

[buzz]

At top level (ie WOC) specialisation is the way to increase the chance of a medal - I have believed this since 2003 in Rapperswill.

Instinctively I would tend to agree with you and assume this would be the case, but few of the top runners seem to agree (in the forest disciplines at least). It could be the mental advantages of running both?

It also perhaps depends on the terrain - there's quite a difference between Long and Middle at this year's WOC.

This year and last the WOC Middle and Relay were on the same (or at least adjacent) areas which also begs the question is it an advantage to have your relay runners run the Middle.

[andypat]

And here was me thinking the best chance of getting a medal was training and talent. Lucky for GB we seem to have the best statisticians (although one of them will probably do some stats to prove me wrong...)

[DavidHH]

The same can be true in other sports - look at Coe and Ovett in Moscow.

In fairness they were ranked 1 and 2 in the world before the event though!

[DavidHH]

Buzz wrote
The same can be true in other sports - look at Coe and Ovett in Moscow.

In fairness they were ranked 1 and 2 in the world before the event though!

[SJC]

JWOC - less controversial this year? Tough for Olly Williams on looking at results but someone had to lose out

Very tough.
Beating someone in all three of the JK selection races only to find that they are in the team and you aren't must be difficult to understand.

[graeme]

At top level (ie WOC) specialisation is the way to increase the chance of a medal - I have believed this since 2003 in Rapperswill.

You mean the 2003 WOC where Simone won gold in sprint and middle and long and relay?

Every single one of the five athletes who have won two golds in a forest discipline (middle, long) also won gold in another discipline. (Niggli, Kauppi, Geourgiou, Lundanes, Hubmann). Specialism in sprint does seem to be becoming an option, but the facts are that every sprint WOC gold medallist up to 2011 also has a forest WOC medal. The more recent winners are still trying.
Random anecdote about recovery

[buzz]

JWOC - less controversial this year? Tough for Olly Williams on looking at results but someone had to lose out

Very tough.
Beating someone in all three of the JK selection races only to find that they are in the team and you aren't must be difficult to understand.

JWOC 2014 was also a selection race for this year's JWOC which I'm sure was taken into account.

But really tough on Olly nevertheless.