WOC Final Selection Races for GB Team

[graeme]

Is GG on top form ? ( I honestly don't know the answer to this, but my impression has been that he is not)

GG turned in more fastest splits than anyone. In the middle he made an uncharacterisic 5-min error, more worryingly in the long he lost time on each of the last few controls and run-in. Which may be a bonk but looks awfully like an injury. Maybe he'll come on and tell us.

Trouble is, the schedule requires six different people in long and sprint: nobody is good enough to race the sprint the day after long qualifier. Leaving only one (new) spot for middle.

lacklustre performances

Devil's advocate: only Street ran a time quick enough for a top-10 in the Finnish selection race, so there's no evidence of top-10 WOC potential anywhere in the trial. Selectors can safely ignore the trial and pick whoever they like!

[afterthought]

I appreciate the recent posts, and have realised I should have put in the event schedule.

Sunday - Long qualifiers
Monday - Sprint qualifiers and sprint final
Tuesday - Long final
Weds -
Thursday - Middle qualifiers
Friday - Middle final
Saturday - Relay

[Big Jon]

I can confidently reassure all that the athletes were not running themselves ragged all week - it was a preparation training week, not a balls-out training week. Most had easy days and/or days off. Apart from lack of sleep at Jukola the week was close to ideal prep for a sel race in foreign terrain.

[Arnold]

Still no on else willing to have a go at picking a team?
Long explanations are all well and good but there's only points for winning picks

And no-one's talked about the women yet!

[graeme]

One might then turn to the world ranking list

If you look at "Average unweighted rebased score" * of the top-3 in each selection race, they're all in the range 1102-1136 (compared with Scott and gg over 1200). i.e. there's nothing to pick between them and the selection races told us nothing we didnt already know!

More relevantly, the best-4-scores list shows a clear advantage to people who went to more WREs. No surprise there.

Before anyone starts saying how the Ranking List is irrelevant, remember that...
1. from 2014 World Ranking replaces qualifying races in determining WOC-start order
2. shortened start intervals mean top-10 results will depend on which pack you're in.
3. selection is based on ability to get in the top-10


*this is, statistically, a better measure of ability than the top-4.

So going with the ranking list, we'd get

Its a bit foolish to speculate without knowing what the runners want

Sprint: Scott Murray Chris
Long: GG Ralph Doug
Middle Hector (+ 2 of the above)

But I reckon they'll drop Doug and Hector for Nixon and Speakey, and Kris will end up going somehow.

Girls
Sprint Tess, Cat, Claire
Long Helen, Cat, Bex
Middle Claire, Helen, Hollie

Cat sprinting "for experience" and a wee panic when Claire decide not to sprint.

46 5063 R Scott Fraser GBR437 1340 1271 1237 1215
75 4955 R Graham Gristwood GBR411 1271 1234 1232 1218
77 4908 R Murray Strain GBR398 1244 1243 1233 1188
101 4757 R Christopher Smithard GBR70 1280 1207 1163 1107
109 4702 R Ralph Street GBR44 1253 1180 1150 1119
113 4686 R Douglas Tullie GBR613 1209 1193 1143 1141
123 4632 R Hector Haines GBR611 1235 1155 1127 1115

[andypat]

OK I should be working but....


Sprint
Rocky
Scotia
Smithy

Ruth H
Tess
Cat T

Middle
Rocky
Speakey
Mharky

Claire
Helen P
Hollie


Long
Doug T
Ralph
Mharky

Cat T
Hollie
Helen P

I'm probably being harsh on GG and Sarah R, and possibly plain wrong to leave Kris off, but as you say - there's lots of tough calls to be made by someone.

The relay I'll leave to someone else to call!

[afterthought]

So Arnold asks what of selection for the women's?

Whilst not as complicated as the men's it is not completely straightforward either. Once again this spectator thanks all mentioned below for all their effort to get in contention.

Three athletes are pre-selected: Tessa for Sprint, Claire for middle, Catherine for long.

We note as before, that combining long and middle is realistic, sprint and middle is realistic, sprint and long isn't, and we have learnt here that opinion may be divided on the advisability of combining middle and relay!

Hollie won the middle test convincingly, with a fine run (margin to best from all nations, Annika Bilstam, 17%.) She was also third in the long with Catherine one of the two ahead, so looks likely to be selected for both (she is not a sprinter.)

Catherine won the long test, two and a half minutes ahead of Helen. Catherine's run was 13% down on the all nations best (Tatiana Ryabkina) and encouragingly her worst six splits (out of 21 in all) match the difference, which suggests an outside chance of a top-10. That race, plus her good run at Venla, also recommends her for the relay.

Helen was second in both test races, and looks likely to be selected therefore for the long, and probably the middle - whilst recognising that maybe not, if she is preferred for the relay and the selectors don't want her competing the two days before it.

So perhaps we may say these five athletes are likely selections:
Sprint: Tessa.
Long: Catherine, Hollie, Helen.
Middle: Claire, Hollie, (maybe Helen.)
Relay: Catherine.

The selectors will likely complete the relay team from these runners. Claire and Hollie's inclusion in the relay could be influenced by how opinion falls on combining middle and relay for three continuous days of competition.

Claire is also a good sprinter and the shorter format may be kinder than the long in keeping her good for the middle later in the week.

One or two more athletes can be selected in the team of seven maximum.

There seem to me to be four candidates?

Or just maybe six: Charlotte Watson and Lucy Butt are running JWOC immediately prior to WOC. They were very close at the top of W20E at the JK, which was the selection event, if not the selection class. At last year's JWOC, Lucy was 7th in the long, Charlotte was 9th in the middle.

Sarah, the third member of the elite performance squad, looks good for a sprint spot.
She was second behind Tessa in the second stage selection race, and I understand that was reasonably soon after a period of limited training because of surgery.

Rebecca, Jessica and Joanna were the athletes to come through the forest test races with a chance. In an echo of the phrase used in the discussion of the men's, they are young athletes (Joanna is a first year senior) based in Scotland, which could be a factor when development is considered. The selectors may choose to look at splits and other considerations. Rebecca and Joanna also ran the second stage of the sprint selection (+1.24, +1.59 respectively).

Clubs, accepting that most run for more than one as the situation dictates, 6 running for Scottish clubs, 4 for English, 1 Swedish.
{edited: Hollie's club changed from Clyde}

Lakeland: Hollie
Edinburgh Southern: Claire
Edinburgh University: Rebecca (Happy Herts), Joanna (Inverness), Charlotte (West Cumberland)
Badenoch and Strathspey: Jessica
Mar: Helen (also Lillomarka from Oslo, Norway)
Harlequins: Tessa
British Army: Sarah
Sarum: Lucy
OK Linne (Uppsala, Sweden): Catherine (ex Edinburgh University)

[andypat]

Hollie won the middle test convincingly, with a fine run (margin to best from all nations, Annika Bilstam, 17%.) She was also third in the long with Catherine one of the two ahead, so looks likely to be selected for both (she is not a sprinter.)

http://www.sportident.co.uk/results/2011/BritishSprintMiddle/sprint_finals/w_elite_-_a.html You sure about that?

[JK]

I think andypat was referring to the middle test in Finland, not the British Middles:
http://online.tulospalvelu.fi/tulokset/ ... lanne/1/0/

[andypat]

No I was referring to afterthought's comment that Hollie isnt a sprinter.

[ER]

Jethro said:

"Sounds a bit like the week they have just experienced - get run ragged at Jukola, train all week then run a selection race - last one standing is the winner."

I am inclined to agree. 2 weeks to WOC and three hard races - Jukola and the 2 selection races. Is there sufficient recovery time to perform at optimum levels?

UK athletics select for World Champs in Moscow at their British Champs which is 4 weeks before in Birmingham.

Recovery from most track events will be quicker as the body has not been subjected to the equivalent of a 10k and two half marathons and more in terrain (if the three races have been done - the selection races themselves without Jukola would be a heavy load). Top track/road running athletes do not race more than a few distance races in a year and really taper for the big ones. Not seen much tapering yet for WOC 2013 and if those selected have to travel back to the UK and then return for the competition this is more stress.

[afterthought]

You sure about that?

No, apologies to Hollie. As you can see from the edit I wasn't even sure what club she runs for.

So fair enough then, if we take that suggestion, Hollie for middle and sprint rather than middle and long, then there's a slot free in the long at the mid-point of my post.

[andypat]

I wasnt actually disagreeing with your selections, only that you couldnt really discount Hollie's sprint credentials. I've actually put Hollie middle and long too, but I have to declare a "slight" Scottish bias to my "choices". I was really just pointing out how difficult the selectors role is.

I wonder if this might be the year where there are one or two surprises with half an eye on 2015 too although its mighty difficult to see who you leave out.

[afterthought]

I wonder if this might be the year where there are one or two surprises with half an eye on 2015 too although its mighty difficult to see who you leave out.

If Radio 5 were cover the story tomorrow and if either Scott or Graham isn't in the team that would be the news. Suppose both....

And now we turn to orienteering, where the big news is the controversial omission of two of Britain's three elite men from the British team for the World Championships in Finland in two weeks time. Yes both Scott Fraser and Graham Gristwood are OUT of the championships.

At the press conference to announce the team, the selectors stressed that both remain very much a key part of plans for podium success at the home world championships in Scotland in 2015. They went on to say that both had been dogged with injuries this year and had not been able to demonstrate they had come through. Also it was a good time to get more experience across the squad as a whole. They denied suggestions of a club vs country issue with their Swedish club Sodeltarje Nikon United, saying that in fact the big events of the Scandinavian season had very much formed part of the thinking, and two other British runners from that club would be joining the third elite athlete Murray 'Rocky' Strain to form the men's relay team.

[andypat]

I seem to remember GG was a bit of a gamble for WOC last year that didnt quite pay off for him or the selectors. I'm not sure whether he's in quite the same position this year with his form, but my gut feeling is there's even stiffer competition for places this year, and the fact he's not pre-selected.... On top form he's in no question. I wouldnt like to be a selector though.