"Luck" in orienteering

[distracted]

You've finished your run, spoken to a few other people afterwards and heard comments like "I was a bit lucky with that one," "Stumbled across that control" or "hit a little gap in the green that took me straight out where I hoped it would go." You also get comments like Gnitworp's:

the shorter the race, the less the scope for compensating for luck elements, which even out in longer races.

Quite often the "luck" mentioned in the assembly field will be the competitor getting away with a lack of concentration and/or some poor technical skills. But sometimes it will be a case of that micro route-choice really making a difference - taking a slightly different line of approach into an area is advantageous, getting the slightest glimpse of a control on a point feature in low-visibility forest, finding the "correct" thicket in a mass of thickets. There's sometimes a control which some people think is "bingo" yet others feel is fine. And so on...

So, how much of this is avoidable? Should luck play any role in orienteering?

[Big Jon]

"the harder I practise the luckier I get" - Gary Player or some other famous golfer of old - when asked if he had been lucky on a round in a major tournament. If you want to get lucky, get out and practise, practise, practise in forests reading maps, running hard and finding features.

[Gnitworp]

....but he competed over 4 rounds of 18 holes', not 4 holes. There is no 'sprint' in golf; it's all 'classic' to prevent the 'lucky' players from winning. Many flash-in-the-pan merchants have led a tournament after one round. How many have won the tournament?

Just as practice, practice, practice will help to make your 'luck' hold throughout 4 rounds of golf so it will for a full 95 minutes of technical orienteering.

[mharky]

flash-in-the-pan merchants don't accidently put the ball down the hole, it's what they intended to do... that isn't luck. it's skill. the difference between those players and the tournemant winners is consistency. the top players hit top shots more often. it doesn't mean when a lower ranked player hits a top shot it is luck, it is premeditated, it is what they wanted to do, they just don't have to skill to make sure they hit shots like that every time they swing the club

[eddie]

'the more i played the luckier i got'

Gary Player

[DJM]

gnitworp argues that luck plays a greater part in a 15 minute Sprint race than it does in a 95 minute "proper" race. I disagree - I would suggest that there are more decisive moments in 15 minutes at, say, the Guildford campus (JK Sprint 08) than in 95 minutes at many Long races. This means that there are more opportunities for good and bad luck to even out in the Sprint race - not the other way round!

It is not length of course which balances good and bad luck out, it is the number of decisive moments instead. And a good Sprint course has these in spades ...

[graeme]

gnitworp argues that luck plays a greater part in a 15 minute Sprint race than it does in a 95 minute "proper" race.

Did he? If so I agree with you, but I thought he argued the luck played a smaller
role in a 30 minute "sprint for the mind" than a 15 minute one (I presume you'd agree?).

This does presuppose that "luck" is uncorrelated - but if you are lucky enough to
get a late start at a brackenfest, or catch a better navigator of similar running speed, you may be lucky all the way round.

Also, following Kitch's argument about "technical" ISSOM and "interpretative" ISOM maps, I think urban ISSOM races generally offer less scope for "luck".

[Gnitworp]

I would suggest that there are more decisive moments in 15 minutes at, say, the Guildford campus.....

..and even more in a 20 minute race, for instance, than your sacrosanct 15.

[distracted]

Interesting views so far; the point I was trying to get across from the examples is how much of this 'luck' isn't actually 'lucky' at all (hence the quotation marks), but completely avoidable as it is just poor practice on the part of the event officials?

- Should controls be 'hidden', behind a fallen tree/bush etc, so that you can't see the flag even if you're in/at the correct feature?
- Why use features like thickets when there are similar unmapped features around, and perfectly good alternatives? And why do controllers allow this use?
- Should you ever need to shout "bingo" on finding a control?

I'm aware that the map can't show everything, and you could be 'lucky' by choosing the route through the forest rather than the apparently faster route along a muddy, churned up track. No map is going to be able to tell you that.

But why are we still consistently seeing examples of bad practice which is on the verge of making a course unfair, even at what are supposedly our top events? And how can we educate our event officials so that courses are as made as fair as possible, so that any "luck" is minimised?

[lakesorunner]

At risk of 'being there before', is this bringing us back to map scales???? and being able to see the thin black ride through the dark green on a 'larger' scale, or not seeing it on a smaller scale because it's that thin you need a magnifier to see it!!!

Graythwaite is still giving you the choice of scale - and sticking to it's decision on giving runners the best possible event we (LOC) can, rather than go with what Map Group (and Competitions) think you should have!!!. It will now be the best Regional Event of the year (probably) you will be able to go to, and it's still the FCC race AND the Northern Champs!!

As everyone will potentionally be able to see the map at their chosen scale, at least that part of 'luck' is removed....

[DJM]

gnitworp wrote:

DJM wrote:
I would suggest that there are more decisive moments in 15 minutes at, say, the Guildford campus.....

..and even more in a 20 minute race, for instance, than your sacrosanct 15.

Or maybe not ... as longer urban races tend to have longer legs (and often more dead running).

It appears that you've conceded my main point however, about luck being no more decisive in a 15 minute Sprint than a 95 minute Long race.

[graeme]

caveat: The views expressed in this post are not necessarily those of the author.

Should a flag be hidden?

I assume you mean such that almost everyone will lose time searching. But people who KNOW they're in the right place are more likely to search thoroughly and find it, than those who just HOPE they're in the right place and wander off. Alternately, if it is ultravisible someone who has missed the feature altogether may spot the flag in the distance, by luck. So it's not so clear that hiding the flag introduces more luck. However, rootling around in thickets it does make orienteering less enjoyable.

Why use thickets when there are similar unmapped features around, and perfectly good alternatives?

If the map is wrong, there are no good alternatives except placing the flag so high nobody can miss it. If the map is right, there is no problem.

Should you ever need to shout "bingo" on finding a control?

Yes, if it is going to increase the enjoyment of the people who hear and not decrease the enjoyment of those who don't.

Why do controllers let it happen?

Because they prioritise difficulty over fairness

[Gnitworp]

DJM wrote:
It appears that you've conceded my main point however, about luck being no more decisive in a 15 minute Sprint than a 95 minute Long race.

I haven't done that; I don't know, and I haven't done results analyses to prove it either. It surely depends on the nature of each individual race, which will be infinitely variable What I do know, however, is that, as a matter of principle, luck becomes less decisive if more rather than less of the same is provided.

[Scott]

Should a flag be hidden?

I assume you mean such that almost everyone will lose time searching. But people who KNOW they're in the right place are more likely to search thoroughly and find it, than those who just HOPE they're in the right place and wander off. Alternately, if it is ultravisible someone who has missed the feature altogether may spot the flag in the distance, by luck. So it's not so clear that hiding the flag introduces more luck. However, rootling around in thickets it does make orienteering less enjoyable.

Of course, the people who are going to much find it quicker are those who happen to arrive in the vicinity of the control as somebody else is punching. Of course, a lot of the fairness in that scenario depends on the quality of the map - if your control is in the bottom of a brambly pit and only visible from 5m away, the centre of gravity of your pit symbol had better be placed within an accuracy 0.5mm...

[distracted]

Should a flag be hidden?

I assume you mean such that almost everyone will lose time searching.

Not in all cases - it could be the case that a control is positioned in/on a feature so that one line into the control feature means the flag is visible and allows a much faster approach, whereas a completely valid alternative route-choice means that it is "hidden" and the approach is slowed/doubt creeps in. A slightly different placement of the control would have meant this wouldn't have been an issue.

Why do controllers let it happen?

Because they prioritise difficulty over fairness

Is this bad "education" of course planning/controlling techniques, or people thinking it's OK because they've had that sort of experience in the past? Shouldn't we be trying to make things as fair and enjoyable as possible, whatever the level of event?