As some of you know I'm interested in following and pack formation, so I looked in detail at the splits. Contrary to what's being said, there are rather few examples of pairs running the whole course together - groups do form, but for whatever reason they seem to break up naturally. The big exception being Khramov and Lauenstein. The women's is a bit more "packy", but again the long legs do a decent job of splitting them (except Niggli and Jukola).
The effect of long legs in splitting packs implies that using butterflies might even hinder breaking packs if they reduce the average leg length (as they invariably have in UK races)
While the 2 minute start interval increases packing, it is also the case that Jukola/Lauenstein could have afforded to lose 4 mins waiting to get caught, and still got silver medals. So a 4 minute start interval wouldn't have helped.
Graeme
Following at WOC
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Following at WOC
WOC2024 Edinburgh
Test races at SprintScotland (Alloa/Falkirk) and Euromeeting (near Stirling).
Test races at SprintScotland (Alloa/Falkirk) and Euromeeting (near Stirling).
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graeme - god
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My thoughts generally are that if you're talking about top orienteers they don't want to follow or be in packs. If you've been caught you want to break free, if you've caught someone you think you should therefore be able to drop them. Perhaps long legs that encourage route choice are the ideal places that competitors think they can take a different route and break away?
I remember one time being trailed by this guy for ages then I made a small mistake, stopped still for about 10 seconds trying to work out what was going on and he asked "which control are we on?". Hmmm.
I remember one time being trailed by this guy for ages then I made a small mistake, stopped still for about 10 seconds trying to work out what was going on and he asked "which control are we on?". Hmmm.
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FatBoy - addict
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I was struck by this at the WOC selections.
Why do we assume that butterflies would break up a pack?
well if you believe that route choice would break up runners then it is logical that butterflies - which simply enforce differing route choice - are a good way of making sure this happens.
But there is no reason to assume that route choice or butterflies break people up any more than they might bring people together.
If something about the way you navigate a leg means you take a differing amount of time then it is just as likely to bring you together with someone as it is to separate you.
If someone is following then butterflies have a % chance of busting them apart.
But they migh also put a follower on the tail of a leader ?
Why do we assume that butterflies would break up a pack?
well if you believe that route choice would break up runners then it is logical that butterflies - which simply enforce differing route choice - are a good way of making sure this happens.
But there is no reason to assume that route choice or butterflies break people up any more than they might bring people together.
If something about the way you navigate a leg means you take a differing amount of time then it is just as likely to bring you together with someone as it is to separate you.
If someone is following then butterflies have a % chance of busting them apart.
But they migh also put a follower on the tail of a leader ?
If you could run forever ......
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Kitch - god
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Its a subtle point Kitch...
I think you're saying that
IF people arrive with some random distribution at the start of the butterfly, and the butterfly means they take differing amounts of time, then when they leave (again in some random distribution) there will be as many packs as when they started.
If so, this logic is correct.
However, if at the start of the butterfly you have more packing than you would get from a random distribution, then the butterfly will reduce it towards that lower amount.
You will get a non-random amount of packing whenever two runners' speeds become similar when they can see each other - because then packs are more likely to from than break up.
The splits from every event I've ever seen show that
runners' speeds do indeed become similar (usually faster) when they are together. Therefore the number of packs increases as the race goes on and will be greater than a random distribution.
Graeme
I think you're saying that
IF people arrive with some random distribution at the start of the butterfly, and the butterfly means they take differing amounts of time, then when they leave (again in some random distribution) there will be as many packs as when they started.
If so, this logic is correct.
However, if at the start of the butterfly you have more packing than you would get from a random distribution, then the butterfly will reduce it towards that lower amount.
You will get a non-random amount of packing whenever two runners' speeds become similar when they can see each other - because then packs are more likely to from than break up.
The splits from every event I've ever seen show that
runners' speeds do indeed become similar (usually faster) when they are together. Therefore the number of packs increases as the race goes on and will be greater than a random distribution.
Graeme
WOC2024 Edinburgh
Test races at SprintScotland (Alloa/Falkirk) and Euromeeting (near Stirling).
Test races at SprintScotland (Alloa/Falkirk) and Euromeeting (near Stirling).
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graeme - god
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