I have no way of knowing if the data is accurate or there's been a change in accounting - but usually when that sort of thing happens you see a step change in the numbers rather than gradual effects and I haven't noticed that. I've tried as best as I could from readily available data to quote comparable information. To my understanding these are total number of runs in A/B/C/D events - there is separate data (bigger numbers) on activities - although its reporting is patchier / inconsistent so I didn't add it. What I am pretty sure of, is that even where there are possible uncertainties on the data, actual data is more robust that one individual's gut feel.
I've no idea if membership was incentivised for funding reasons at some point. I'm not sure that matters to the hypothesis that membership has fallen enormously. Membership carries a cost and voting rights - its not something which is magicked out of thin air.
Perhaps there are fewer people at events but my feeling is there are more events and actually it pretty much cancels out.
I was a bit surprised that there wasn't a nice graph of this stuff in an obvious BOF report (ideally broken down by age group etc). Would be really interesting to see where we have local spots of growth and decline (a club, a region, an age group) and see if we can try to replicate the good stuff? But to do that robustly you need many years data and lots of data points so its clear if stuff is a trend or a blip.
Peter Palmer Relays
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Re: Peter Palmer Relays
and what I'm saying is that what you've experienced in the field isn't necessarily represented in the metrics - so are these members running less often? more locally? etc - is that because better maps/mapping/timing have trickled down to local events (a good thing) so people don't feel they need to drive for 2 hrs to get to a good event (a good thing) or because people can't be bothered going to big events (a bad thing) or because there are upteen competing sports and we are not interesting/exciting enough (a bad thing).From MY experience I feel there has been a collapse in membership.
I agree with the first sentence (and think that is actually a bad thing). One issue we have is that entering the sport as a teenager is really hard - you are competing against people who have done it since they could walk (actually its the same entering as an adult). I'm not sure I agree with the second part - we now see grandchildren of club founders on courses and I don't think it will be that long before we see great grandchildren on string courses!The main source of junior participation for many years has been the birth of children to existing orienteers. The mean age profile of the orienteer has now shifted beyond dependent children and likewise the number of juniors falls accordingly.
Possibly - I'm in a club that has grown over that time.If you see and feel it is different then you are attending different events to me.
- Atomic
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Re: Peter Palmer Relays
Atomic wrote:What I am pretty sure of, is that even where there are possible uncertainties on the data, actual data is more robust that one individual's gut feel.
I agree with this. Lack of robust data is a big issue when trying to gain meaningful insight. Unfortunately, the figures in isolation aren't particularly helpful. There needs to be more contextual information- e.g. any notable things that may have affected the numbers at any given point- and more granularity- e.g. age break-downs, number of runs per member, etc.
Personally I see a 20% drop in membership in less than ten years pre-covid, which personally I find pretty alarming. Gradual decline often leads to the boiling frog issue, with the timeframe where effective action could be taken to meaningful change things overlooked as the incremental decline doesn't feel too dramatic.
There may be comfort to be drawn on the figures, but I'm not sure I see it. Admittedly, that's in part because my own observations are of membership numbers being artificially inflated by a rapidly growing number of non-participating members, typically long-standing older members who are slowly withdrawing from planning, organising, coaching and committee roles, even if they still occasionally participate in events. I am very aware that my own experience may not be typical- but it's certainly not challenged by the overall membership and participation figures.
Atomic wrote:Perhaps there are fewer people at events but my feeling is there are more events and actually it pretty much cancels out.
Perhaps. But if that's a smaller number of more active active individuals, I don't think that's a good sign in terms of long term planning and sustainability. A slowly declining baseline figure may mask a more rapidly declining ongoing capacity. Or, it may not. Without the detail, it's impossible to tell.
I applaud the attempt to add data to the discussion. There needs to be more of it, and the apparent lack of meaningful data is, in my opinion, one of the key issues that needs to be addressed most urgently.
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Re: Peter Palmer Relays
Theres data in the annual reports - oddly I couldn't find all the annual reports and the format / detail of the data changes quite a bit. I'm sure BOF would be willing to share the data if it helped understand the situation. I agree there is a risk of boiling frog, although for context you'd want to compare to some other sports to see if their numbers are doing the same. It strikes me that one of the reasons people joined clubs and federations in the past was to get comms / know what was happening etc and now the internet/social media makes that much less needed.
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Re: Peter Palmer Relays
Here's a graph I made for the 2019 Club & Member Forum:
I strongly suspect that that big bulge will have drifted further to the right in the past three years, but I agree that it would be an exercise worth repeating.
I strongly suspect that that big bulge will have drifted further to the right in the past three years, but I agree that it would be an exercise worth repeating.
British Orienteering Director | Opinions expressed on here are entirely my own, and do not represent the views of British Orienteering.
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