In all this you need to consider what people would otherwise be doing if they weren't go to an orienteering event. Unless you are going to lock yourself in your house with a survivalist stock of tinned food for the next few months then you are going to be coming into contact with infected people.
Yes someone infected may have touched the lock of a portaloo door - but that could be equally true of absolutely any door you might need to open anywhere.
Orienteering and Covid
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
Interesting to see what Park Runs are saying:
https://www.parkrun.com/news/2020/03/12/covid-19/
The turn out today in my local one was just under 500, about 100 down on the usual.
https://www.parkrun.com/news/2020/03/12/covid-19/
The turn out today in my local one was just under 500, about 100 down on the usual.
- drobin
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
One of the best comments I've seen. There are much riskier activities in most peoples week.pete.owens wrote:In all this you need to consider what people would otherwise be doing if they weren't go to an orienteering event. Unless you are going to lock yourself in your house with a survivalist stock of tinned food for the next few months then you are going to be coming into contact with infected people.
- maprun
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
maprun wrote:One of the best comments I've seen. There are much riskier activities in most peoples week.pete.owens wrote:In all this you need to consider what people would otherwise be doing if they weren't go to an orienteering event. Unless you are going to lock yourself in your house with a survivalist stock of tinned food for the next few months then you are going to be coming into contact with infected people.
The UK government seems tot be taking a "devil take the hindmost" approach - unlike almost every other country and contrary to the WHO guidelines of pursuing all cases as quickly and closely as possible. Maybe the powers that be want a fatalistic view to develop that leads to tens of thousands of deaths before the mythical "herd immunity' develops.
As one article stated - "herd immunity without a vaccine is survival of the fittest".
Are you happy for your elderly relatives to bear the brunt of the UK government's singular approach to the corona-virus?
- Big Jon
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
It's quite revealing isn't it? People's attitude towards the virus.
For some people it's 'how is the spread of the virus going to affect my life?' and for others it's 'How can I affect the spread of the virus'?'
'Will I catch the virus?' versus 'Who would I pass it onto if I did?'
For some people it's 'how is the spread of the virus going to affect my life?' and for others it's 'How can I affect the spread of the virus'?'
'Will I catch the virus?' versus 'Who would I pass it onto if I did?'
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Mrs H - god
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
Big Jon wrote: Maybe the powers that be want a fatalistic view to develop that leads to tens of thousands of deaths
Tens of thousands would be a fantastic result - it's what we get in a bad flu year. COVID is almost certainly going to be a lot more serious.
People's attitude towards the virus.
My attitude is "when will I get it?". I haven't figured out my preferred answer.
WOC2024 Edinburgh
Test races at SprintScotland (Alloa/Falkirk) and Euromeeting (near Stirling).
Test races at SprintScotland (Alloa/Falkirk) and Euromeeting (near Stirling).
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graeme - god
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
Many of us are old enough to remember our childhood and the approach to infectious diseases then. If a friend had one of the childhood diseases, we were sent round to play to try and catch it (I never did manage to catch German measles). I wonder about trying the same approach to Covid-19, to get it over and done with (yes I do know that Covid-19, like measles etc, can be a serious illness).
Another thought: currently the Government is trying to look after all those infected by Covid-19, whereas in a few weeks they may well give up on the infected over 60s. So sooner rather than later could be better.
Another thought: currently the Government is trying to look after all those infected by Covid-19, whereas in a few weeks they may well give up on the infected over 60s. So sooner rather than later could be better.
- babs f
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
Mrs H wrote:It's quite revealing isn't it? People's attitude towards the virus.
For some people it's 'how is the spread of the virus going to affect my life?' and for others it's 'How can I affect the spread of the virus'?'
'Will I catch the virus?' versus 'Who would I pass it onto if I did?'
Revealing indeed. Together with a strange appraisal of risk. Seasonal flu has around a 0.1% morbidity rate. 1 in 1000 known cases, mostly those in high risk groups with underlying health conditions. It appears COVID19 has a death rate in those under 40 (the least affected group) of 0.2%. 1 in 500. For those a bit older, it's 1 in 250. For the most vulnerable groups, it's 14.8%. Around 1 in 7.
In time, when a vaccine becomes available, the effects will no doubt become comparable to flu. For the moment, caution would appear advisable, especially in and around those aged 60 and above. Now, remind me- what's the average age of active orienteers?
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
pete.owens wrote:In all this you need to consider what people would otherwise be doing if they weren't go to an orienteering event. Unless you are going to lock yourself in your house with a survivalist stock of tinned food for the next few months then you are going to be coming into contact with infected people.
Yes someone infected may have touched the lock of a portaloo door - but that could be equally true of absolutely any door you might need to open anywhere.
Yes, the plan is that the majority of us are going to get it, however I'm sure you're aware that the point is that we need to try to slow down the spread as much as possible. Hand washing is the easiest thing we can do to do this. I highlighted that at orienteering events the hand washing facilities in toilets are inadequate for our current scenario, given that most people cannot currently obtain hand sanitiser for themselves.
For the more geeky amongst us, to illustrate the use of washing hands, interestingly the BBC did a tv show in 2018 where they acquired social interaction and movement data from 28000 people in the UK. Mathematicians from the University of Cambridge and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine then ran a simulation of spread in the UK using similar characteristics to our SARSCov-2, infection rate R0 = 1.8 (although our virus has an R0 of 2 - 2.5) . Their case fatality rate (CFR) is 2% where as Prof Chris Whitty has been using an estimated CFR of 1%, so if you halve the number of deaths it's relevant to our current situation. The first simulation they ran gives 60% of the population an infection and with CFR of 1%, 440 000 deaths. The second simulation includes everyone washing their hands 10 times a day and it massively slows down the spread, reduces the final number of people infected by 13 million and ultimately fewer people die. It's quite fascinating and reassuring, 58 minutes onwards is relevant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic
Personally I'd rather not acquire the virus while the curve is on the up, and one of my parents is very vulnerable, so in answer to your question of what would you be doing if you weren't orienteering, a run on a hill or in a forest suits me fine! Also I'd rather pee behind a tree .
- lumisade
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
Not worried about which is uppermost in someone's thoughts; mine changes constantly depending on who is around me. Provided it leads to improved hygiene, it has the same effect.Mrs H wrote:It's quite revealing isn't it? People's attitude towards the virus.
For some people it's 'how is the spread of the virus going to affect my life?' and for others it's 'How can I affect the spread of the virus'?'
'Will I catch the virus?' versus 'Who would I pass it onto if I did?'
Good point(s) . Perhaps if someone is fortunate to have some spare sanitisers, they might consider donating/selling them to the organisers.lumisade wrote:I highlighted that at orienteering events the hand washing facilities in toilets are inadequate for our current scenario, given that most people cannot currently obtain hand sanitiser for themselves.... Also I'd rather pee behind a tree .
- maprun
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
I think the chief scientific officers comments on herd immunity are being over-interpreted. I listened what he said on the radio, I think he was saying that their models predict herd immunity will happen because a vaccine wont be available in time, rather than that being the actual aim.
As well as the death rate, which will hopefully be lower for healthy orienteers, there is also the percentage who will require hospital treatment, 1 in 5, and our acknowledged overstretched NHS. The prime minister's public plea for manufacturers to build more ventilators does not reassure me. So in these circumstances I can see why so many people are urging every way to reduce and slow the spread of coronavirus, even if a particular method isn't very effective on its own (such as cancelling orienteering events?).
I'm also interested in what clubs are planning for their smaller event. I can imagine a small event where you could eliminate almost all risk.
- Online entry only.
- Contactless punching.
- No SI Card hire.
- Download unit held on a car bonnet with download official in the car with the window wound up.
- Start times pre allocated, 2 minute gaps. No start time changes.
- Start and finish next to the car, no start or finish volunteers
- Competitors must not be within 2 metres of each other.
- All results and post race chat online after the event.
It's all a bit dystopian and crazy but that would reduce a lot of risk.
As well as the death rate, which will hopefully be lower for healthy orienteers, there is also the percentage who will require hospital treatment, 1 in 5, and our acknowledged overstretched NHS. The prime minister's public plea for manufacturers to build more ventilators does not reassure me. So in these circumstances I can see why so many people are urging every way to reduce and slow the spread of coronavirus, even if a particular method isn't very effective on its own (such as cancelling orienteering events?).
I'm also interested in what clubs are planning for their smaller event. I can imagine a small event where you could eliminate almost all risk.
- Online entry only.
- Contactless punching.
- No SI Card hire.
- Download unit held on a car bonnet with download official in the car with the window wound up.
- Start times pre allocated, 2 minute gaps. No start time changes.
- Start and finish next to the car, no start or finish volunteers
- Competitors must not be within 2 metres of each other.
- All results and post race chat online after the event.
It's all a bit dystopian and crazy but that would reduce a lot of risk.
- SeanC
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
A sobering thought for older orienteers, according to Prof Christine Jenkins, chair of Lung Foundation Australia,"it’s important to remember that no matter how healthy and active you are, your risk for getting pneumonia increases with age. This is because our immune system naturally weakens with age, making it harder for our bodies to fight off infections and diseases.”SeanC wrote:As well as the death rate, which will hopefully be lower for healthy orienteers,
- maprun
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
Just a thought: Could events be run by leaving control kites in the forest for a few weeks/months and people run the course in their own time? We could have an honesty system where people just upload their time. Then we could use this forum to have our usual discussion of routes taken, cock-ups etc.
- NickT
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
We're thinking of having our April Street-O on MapRun instead.
Run anytime in the month of April to get a valid score.
Run anytime in the month of April to get a valid score.
- Arnold
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Re: Orienteering and Covid
So Boris Johnson is now saying "He says the government will not longer support mass gatherings." Is this a ban or a serious suggestion that mass events are cancelled or just a mild hint?
I suggest that BOC is cancelled now - in time for people to sort things, try to get refunds of travel, accommodation etc (personally I won't ask for a refund of event entry as many costs are already committed to).
Its not the worry of contact at the event that disturbs me but travelling through airports and on planes. Plus the following: "He says the situation is particularly serious in London, which is several weeks ahead of the rest of the country in terms of the spread of coronavirus." - another quote from Johnson.
I suggest that BOC is cancelled now - in time for people to sort things, try to get refunds of travel, accommodation etc (personally I won't ask for a refund of event entry as many costs are already committed to).
Its not the worry of contact at the event that disturbs me but travelling through airports and on planes. Plus the following: "He says the situation is particularly serious in London, which is several weeks ahead of the rest of the country in terms of the spread of coronavirus." - another quote from Johnson.
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